Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester United are locked in a race for Champions League qualification for next season. As we approach the end of February and the calendar flips to March, here’s a look at the next 5 EPL games for each club and who has the easiest path to Europe next season.
A Look At The Table
| Pos | Team | Pts | GD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Manchester United | 48 | +11 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 45 | +17 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 45 | +7 |
First, let’s look at the table. Manchester United lead in the race with 48 points after they beat Everton 1-0. Chelsea are next with 45 points with a goal difference of +17. Liverpool also have 45 points, but the Reds’ goal difference is only +7.
The EPL is guaranteed 4 Champions League spots, but based on the performances by English teams in European competition, that number will likely be bumped up to five. Arne Slot has said that Champions League football is the bare minimum for a club like Liverpool, and many pundits believe Slot will be sacked if the Reds don’t reach that goal.
Liverpool’s Next 5 Matches
Liverpool are the most important team on this list. If they hit a run of poor results, it won’t matter what Chelsea or United do in this stretch.
- West Ham (Home): The Hammers are locked in a relegation battle with Forest. They will be desperate for a result, but I think Liverpool get all 3.
- Wolves (Away): This is the first of two back-to-back away matches at Wolves. The other is an FA Cup Tie. Look for Arne Slot to go all out with the best players on the pitch for the EPL match, and let the young guns like Rio Ngumoha go for glory in the FA Cup
- Spurs (Home): Spurs, another struggling club. They are winless in their last 5 EPL matches and just two points above the relegation zone. Liverpool should get all the points here.
- Brighton (Away) The Gulls are on 34 points and 14th on the table. It will be interesting to see if former Liverpool captain James Milner will extend his EPL attendance record with an appearance in the game.
- Fullham (Home) The Cottagers have given the Reds some tough matches in recent years. In fact, Liverpool have not beaten Fulham since April of 2024. This is the toughest match of the 5.
Chelsea’s Next 5 Matches
- Arsenal (Away): Chelsea should drop points against the EPL-leaders away, allowing Liverpool to move up the table
- Aston Villa (Away) A second straight road game against a top 4 team is brutal for the Blues
- Newcastle (Home) They get a break here as Newcastle are in bad form, having lost 4 of 5 matches in EPL play. Chelsea wins
- Everton (Away) Maybe our Merseyside brethren can do us a favour in this one
- Man City (Home) The Reds and their supporters will certainly be cheering for Haaland and company this day. That does not happen very often.
Manchester United’s Next 5 Matches
- Crystal Palace (Home): Palace has given Liverpool fits this season. Hopefully, they can also torment the Red Devils.
- Newcastle (Away): It would be nice if Newcastle could at least manage a draw on their home ground
- Aston Villa (Home): I see a competitive match in this one. I think they share the spoils
- Bournemouth (Away): Bournemouth are a club on the rise. They are unbeaten in their last 5 EPL contests. I see the Cherries picking up a win here.
- Leeds (Home): Leeds are a gritty team, known for garnering draws. One here would certainly help Liverpool’s Champions League chances
LFC Globe Verdict
Of the three teams, I think Liverpool have the easiest path to Champions League qualification for next season. According to Opta Stats, Liverpool have a 34 per cent chance of qualifying. United are at 44 per cent based on their win vs. Everton, and Chelsea sits at 20 per cent because of their difficult schedule ( two away games against Top 4 competition) over the next 5 games.
Based on the Reds' schedule, facing teams at or near the bottom of the table, I see them picking up 13 of 15 possible points. 15 of 15 is not out of the realm of possibility.
It does not matter if they play poorly as they did against Forest or hypothetically bang in 7 vs. Brighton; wins are what matter against a favourable schedule. They need the points now before the schedule gets tougher in the latter part of the campaign.
Have Your Say
What are your thoughts? Is it too early in the season to scoreboard-watch? Will you be pulling for Manchester City to beat Chelsea, or as a Reds fan, is it unfathomable to cheer for a rival? Sound off below.